Majyd Aziz
Liberalization of trade and
investment between Pakistan and India is not a new or abstract initiative, but
the process is not an easy venture nor should one be naive that there would be
a sudden upsurge in trade activities. Businessmen have always asserted that
trade and investment should never remain hostage to other contentious issues or
even to the usual accusations that emanate out of the hallowed halls of officialdom
in Delhi and Islamabad. It is really difficult to make hawks and hardliners
comprehend the critical mass that liberalized trade and inflow of investment
can provide towards ushering in relative peace and sanity. Ergo, the hackneyed mantra, that unless
contentious issues are addressed, there should be no mega shift in the trade
and investment regime.
During one of the Cabinet
meetings, some Ministers, representing constituents from rural Pakistan, raised
concerns about where the MFN would lead to. At the same time, powerful lobbies
from the automotive and pharmaceutical sectors were banging on the doors of
Commerce Ministry pleading for a revisit of the impending decision to grant
MFN. A concerted protest program was initiated by pseudo-religious elements,
mostly those whose bread and butter is dependent upon the funding and
facilities provided to them by unscrupulous traders who are active in informal
cross-border trade.
Thus, the Sharif government decided
to rechristen the MFN nomenclature by terming it as Non-Discriminatory Market Access.
As Shakespeare said, “What's in a name? That which we call a rose by any
other name would smell as sweet.” The illogicality is that inspite of
getting some strength in making the pragmatic decision, inspite of the assurances
given by the Commerce Minister at various forums and meetings, and inspite of
the avowed commitment of the Sharif government to grant the NDMA on a priority
basis, the final decision is still in a limbo.
The apparent reasons floated are
that the nation’s establishment has deep reservations as it is advisable to
frame trade and investment decisions within the parameters of the composite
dialogue process rather than dealing it as a separate subject. This is still a
moot point and not entirely maintainable because if there were such profound
objections from powers that be, then the whole exercise would have been nipped
in the bud. However, due to political exigencies, Sharif has to walk on a thin
line and so NDMA or such other issues are consigned to the back porch.
The installation of Narendra Modi
and his very bold decision to invite Sharif to his swearing-in ceremony sent a
very encouraging message. However, the damper came when the Indian Foreign
Secretary and the Pakistani Foreign Advisor came out with conflicting
statements about the fifty-minute talks between Modi and Sharif. This further
gave impetus to those forces within Pakistan who are inimical towards granting any
concessions to India or even liberalizing the visa regime.
Trade and investment is possible
in a peaceful and trusted environment. Commerce gets waylaid whenever a hostile
situation is omnipresent. The road towards liberalization of trade and
investment, especially in the context of the two large SAARC nations, is very
torturous and filled with boulders.
Ironically, there is a side road that is more or less well paved for
trade movement. This is the avenue of informal trade.
The business leadership of India
and Pakistan are on the same page when it comes to formalizing the process of
trade and investment liberalization. The politicians and bureaucracy do listen
to them and do grasp the imperative need to widen the trade windows. Unfortunately,
the business leaders are unable to convince or motivate those elements who do
not subscribe to a peace in the sub-continent. There is thus a modicum of distress
within the business communities of both the countries, more so in Pakistan.
This is the fear of being questioned about patriotism, of being responsible for
a deluge of Indian goods in the domestic market, and of not getting equal
treatment for their goods or services across the border due to the discriminatory
usage of Non-Tariff Trade Barriers that many Pakistani businessmen claim are
Pakistan-specific.
Therefore, the advent of a
Corporate Prime Minister in New Delhi and the business-oriented thinking of
Nawaz Sharif coupled with their commonalities have enforced the hopes and
aspirations of the Pakistani businessmen who see a new paradigm in the
bilateral relations. They do have their concerns that contentious issues would
affect the trade regime in a see-saw mode but then there is always the desire
to be optimistic and to sincerely lobby for removal of all cobwebs that are
hampering trade and investment.
Pakistani industrialists and
businessmen see joint ventures, outsourcing, technology transfers, Indian
Special Economic Zones in Pakistan near the border, opening up of
Munabao-Khokhrapar route for trade and people-to-people movement, facilitative
visa regime, mutual recognition of standards, harmonization of customs
regulations and procedures, SAARC regional cumulation, alternate dispute
resolution mechanism, cross-border banking facilities, and more importantly, reduction
in NTBs. The overall impact would be that trade and investment would be the
designated game-changer that should, in the long run, bring about regional economic
integration. A receptive Indian market for Pakistani products would be the
ideal confidence-building measure that is so essential in thwarting the
ulterior designs of hardliners and naysayers.
There is an inbuilt mindset among
many sections of Indian media and armchair analysts that always hype up
negativity whenever there is a thaw in the bilateral relations. The same is the
case among many of their counterparts in Pakistanis. The difference is that the
Indian government-led accusations get global prominence while Pakistan is generally
inclined to play on the defensive. This tends to vitiate the tense situation
and further compounds it by attracting a rancorous chorus from the belligerent
media, fundamentalist provocateurs, militaristic theorists, and parochial
politicos. But, should all these become roadblocks in free trade and investment?
Obviously, trade would be a catalyst and not relinquishing sovereignty.
The prognosis for the future does
look rosy, albeit, it would require a strong determination of the business
leadership to ensure that all decisions taken so far to liberalize and
facilitate trade and investment are activated and put into effect. The two
Corporate Prime Ministers should also think about posterity as they would
achieve iconoclastic status if they are able to infuse a new dynamism in
Indo-Pak trade and investment process.
The Greek shipping tycoon,
Aristotle Onassis, aptly said, and this should be a guiding point for Shri Modi
and Janab Sharif, that ”it is during our darkest moments that we must focus
to see the light.”
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