Modi Magic in Indo-Pakistan Trade

Majyd Aziz

A Pakistani industrialist is sanguine that Narendra Modi will infuse new life in Indo-Pak trade and investment regime and transform the present scenario of policy paralysis and lack of optimism into more bang for the buck.

“For now it is Modi, Modi, Modi for me. For the country, actually.” Jitender Singh, a 38-year-old rickshaw driver in a purple turban in the old part of Delhi, commented to a news agency. Singh, one of the 814 million legitimate voters, is going to take part in this nine-stage polling process for elections of 543 members of the Lok Sabha. The Bharatiya Janata Party is leading the pack and the projections are that BJP is on its way to form the government, albeit with support from smaller as well as regional parties who are more inclined towards the BJP ideology. All eyes are, therefore, on the now possibility of the Gujarat Chief Minister, Narendra Modi, taking over the mantle from Manmohan Singh.

The various analysts and commentators on Pakistan’s electronic media and in their columns in the national newspapers generally opine that things would be rough for Pakistan once Modi settles into the driving seat at 7, Race Course Road in New Delhi. Usually they give more importance to the rhetorical balderdash regurgitated by Amit Shah and his ilk who maintain their aggressive posture at most of the campaign rallies. They also routinely refer to anti-Pakistan and anti-China statements of Modi to prove their point. Most of them bring up the 27 February 2002 burning of the train and the ensuing carnage that swept through the Muslim-dominated areas of Gujarat where upto 2000 Muslims were massacred by violent mobs. They fear the revival of anti-Muslim hysteria once the National Democratic Alliance commences its tenure. Hardliners in Pakistan foresee enhanced religious polarization and they are focusing on propagation that the Muslim population in India would be dangerously subject to the Hindu fundamentalist upsurge.

The business community of Pakistan, most of whose leaders are gung-ho about liberalization of trade and investment with India, are, for the first time, discussing, watching, and trying to understand the dynamics of the Indian election process and especially the ramifications of a Modi government. The buzz in the bazaars and in various trade organizations is that there would be a shift in the Pakistani-specific thinking of Chief Minister Modi and Prime Minister Modi. The enlightened businessmen are of the opinion that the trade liberalization process would withstand the present mantra of some BJP leaders during the campaign where foreign policy, national security, and religion are clubbed together, and aspersions and insinuations are cast on India’s western neighbor. The Indian Election Commission has rightly issued a gag order against Amit Shah in response to opposition petitions that he was “poisoning the atmosphere with communal invectives against Muslims.” This is a manifestation of maintaining the secular principles over prejudiced or intolerant attacks on a religious minority.

The businessmen and industrialists of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry take cognizance of the reciprocity extended by Modi when a KCCI delegation met him in Dec 2011 in Ahmadabad. According to news reports and interviews with some delegation members, Modi assured them that he “is in favor of cordial relations with Pakistan. He wants to help Pakistan out of its power crisis, especially in Sindh.” He advised the delegates that “Sindh could follow the ‘Gujarat Model’ for development of infrastructure, drinking water availability and power generation.” The delegation members said that “inspite of whatever Pakistan may think about Modi, he was in favor of the fact that procedure to get visas should be relaxed for Pakistanis wanting to visit Ajmer Sharif shrine. Modi informed them that instead of inviting Foreign Direct Investment, it is better to improve trade ties with Pakistan and he invited Pakistani industrialists to establish textile units in Gujarat. He said provision of energy is not an issue in Gujarat and all facilities would be extended to Pakistani investors.” This invitation was given despite the then Pakistan-specific clause of Reserve Bank of India prohibiting investment from Pakistan and Indian investment across the border. This offer and this assurance reflect a different Modi than the political demagoguery at campaign rallies and whistle-stops.

Another factor that Pakistani businessmen note on a positive scale is the influence of India’s mega tycoons who are reported to be heavily bankrolling the BJP campaign. The iconic photo of Modi bear-hugging Mukesh Ambani at the Vibrant Gujarat Summit 2013 is taken as a reflection of the close nexus between him and the moneybags of India. The Ambanis, the Godrejs, the Mittals, the Manjals, and the Bajajs, et al, are strong proponents of Indo-Pak trade and investment. Yasin Siddik, the dynamic Chairman of the powerful All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, is highly optimistic when he remarked to an Indian journal that “Congress has been conservative in its approach and things are moving very slowly. If BJP comes into power, they may take a few bold steps that may boost trade”. The pragmatism of Modi is also succinctly noticeable when someone asked him when he would distribute free laptops in Gujarat. He replied, "I will give them jobs so that they can buy laptops." This is the constructive perception that Pakistani businessmen see in Modi’s thinking process.

The Pakistani businessmen have openly supported granting the status of Most Favored Nation to India. However, Islamabad, sensing the sensitivities of the misconceived connotations of MFN, changed the nomenclature to a more palatable Non Discriminatory Market Access. Yet, the dilly-dallying continues, there is again an aborted take-off, and the issue side-stepped with a terse declaration that once the new government in New Delhi is ready to talk on comprehensive bilateral issues, the NDMA will become operative.

The business community of India and Pakistan must not remain prisoners of history nor should they ignore the fact that over six decades have gone by and the peace dividend has yet to be encashed. There are powerful forces on both sides of the border who continue to demonize the trade liberalization process. At the same time, emotions and sensationalism reach a high crescendo whenever negative episodes occur. It seems that the bilateral relationship swings between nostalgia and deadlock. The weeds of neglect and contempt are still on the railroad tracks and the cobwebs of distrust and conflict are visible on the ceilings. The businessmen must become energetic game changers in a more prominent way to get the myriad roadblocks on the motorway of trade liberalization removed. The conferences and conclaves are great public relation extravaganzas but there is no vigorous determination to achieve nuts and bolts solutions. Are the denizens of the sub-continent waiting for divine interventions or are they ready for a regional paradigm shift on a fast track? A lot needs to be done, more goodwill needs to be created, and Narendra Modi can transform the illusive, but inevitable, into a black and white reality. Lord Buddha said, “As a solid rock is not shaken by a strong wind, so wise persons remain unaffected by praise or criticism.”