Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Shaping the Financial Access Agenda



Majyd Aziz

Mark Twain, the American author and humorist once noted that “everyone talks of the weather but no one does anything about it.” It seems that this iconic quote can be applied, to a large extent, on the global debate about pro-poor economic policies. Nary has a week gone by without any conference, seminar, or a populist announcement by state leaders regarding alleviation of poverty around the world. The hyperbole is ever-present in these activities and a long list of to-do guidance is circulated, deliberated and discussed. The focus is well-intentioned but the implementation leaves much to be desired. This lack of an inclusive approach has aggravated the global initiative to bring about economic sanity. This, then, is the dilemma that is still the cause of social and political unrest, mega deprivation, and enhanced non-legal actions by people.

The election manifestos of political parties around the world proclaim in exuberant terms the priorities if elected to power. The headline priority is invariably an agenda of poverty alleviation through a defined enumeration of initiatives and projects. The direct financial cost of these measures is never taken into consideration. Resorting to catchwords and demagoguery is the marketing ploy during electioneering and the hapless crowd eagerly listens and raises full-throated slogans. For them, every election is one step away from deliverance from their misery. Reality sets in soon and the gap between the rich and poor widens further.

The above narrative is not an isolated perception but is universal and more so in less developed countries. The huge financial resources required to cut down the poverty figures take a heavy toll on the governments. Domestic assets are not enough to bring about the attainment of the objectives. Often, the election pledges and promises succumb to grandiose projects that are generally not beneficial for the less privileged but reflect the utter disregard by the rulers for the nation’s prime imperatives. This also manifests disdain for social justice, for pragmatic welfare of the people, and for human values.

The access to finance in a country like Pakistan is tragically very limited and directly affects the population, especially those on the lower tier of income groups. It also discourages micro and small sized enterprises from expanding or surviving due to lack of affordable financial resources. The unreasonably high financial transaction costs, non-dissemination of credit availability, indefinable incentives, gender discrimination, and poorly designed or non-transparent policies are the negative aspects of whatever financial access is currently available. Thus, the lack of prescribed access to finance impacts on the welfare and sustainability of small enterprises, as well as on low income households. This is undoubtedly the crux of the matter.

The International Finance Institutions, such as World Bank, IMF, or Asian Development Bank, are generally castigated for their macro-economic recipe that focus on eliminating subsidies, increasing the rates of infrastructure like electricity and gas, liberalization of trade, broadening the tax base through value added tax, etc.

However, the pro-poor and universally applicable initiatives undertaken by these IFIs, such as IMF, are noteworthy. This new approach seems to be a visionary paradigm shift and the judicious implementation of these initiatives would bring about desired enhancement in the quality and standard of living of the dispossessed and deprived populace in the world. IMF has developed the use of Financial Access Survey (FAS) that enables policymakers to map out the dynamics of promoting financial services and regulating and supervising financial institutions. According to IMF,”the FAS is the sole source of global supply-side data on financial inclusion, encompassing internationally-comparable basic indicators of financial access and usage. It provides policy makers and researchers with annual geographic and demographic data on access to basic consumer financial services worldwide.”

The FAS mapping of Pakistan reveals some key indicators regarding access to finance. The charts below from the FAS reveal a very low exposure to commercial banking, especially when there is a growing increase in number of bank branches. It shows that there are only 4 commercial bank branches for every 100,000 adults. There are less than 14 bank branches in every 1000 square kilometer radius while ATMs are about 6 for every 100,000 people. Moreover, most of the foreign commercial banks are located in urban areas and basically the government-owned banks such as National Bank of Pakistan or the Zarai Taraqiati Bank Ltd (erstwhile Agriculture Development Bank Ltd) have exposure in rural areas. It is also worthwhile to point out the fact that since most of the banks have stringent rules and excessive paperwork, the ordinary citizen is usually discouraged from entering the portals of these financial institutions. Furthermore, only about 15% of households have deposit accounts or borrow from these banks. That is why savings rate is also pathetically very low.





The IFIs can include a substantive package of initiatives in the approved loans given to various nations. For a country like Pakistan, there is a vital need to provide loans on lower-markup basis for financing of low-cost housing projects across the country. At the present moment, there is a significant shortage of over nine million housing units. Every day, this figure enhances by about 10,000 units. One major reason has been the high cost of construction as well as either non-availability of land or exorbitant cost of land. Thus, housing mortgages for a 25 year tenor at single figure markup rates would induce more people to obtain housing loans and encourage them to move to suburbs or settlements away from the hustle bustle of urban areas. Moreover, an upsurge in housing construction would be beneficial for more than 45 ancillary industries and create abundant job opportunities. This is very much needed for Pakistan and this is a recipe for economic development in the otherwise shaky business and industrial environments.  

The scheduled commercial banks are also tapering down their exposure of lending to SMEs. This has gradually become adverse to the growth and proliferation of the SME sector due to the fact that the burden of cost of capital is exceptionally prohibitive and beyond the capacity of many SMEs and MSMEs to service their debt obligations. Moreover, denial of credit from commercial banks also compels many SMEs and MSMEs to source financing from the microcredit institutions or informal financiers, albeit at a very high markup rate. This too is another discouragement of easy financial access for those who have less collateral or who are unable to obtain third party guarantees. A glance at the chart below demonstrates this tough situation.


The advent of branchless banking and the use of mobile phone service operators for widespread banking access has been greatly appreciated by the people as this provides them with alternate banking facilities, is proximity-convenient, and it does not compel users to maintain bank accounts. In an article, “Mobile Banking: The Fingertip Solution”, this writer emphasized that “The favorable attitude towards mobile banking is a manifestation of consumer financial empowerment. The customers are getting hassle-free service and in close proximity to their home or place of work. The guiding line for service providers is, and should be, that customer behavior is re-defining the ways of conventional banking and that customers are less interested in visiting branches and wasting precious time.”

The chart prepared by Tameer Bank Easypaisa displays an eye-popping scenario of those with formal financial access in eight Asian countries. The figures are depressingly low for Pakistan. To further amplify the idea of seamless banking through the use of mobile phones, Easypaisa observes that only 15 million Pakistanis have bank accounts while there are 130 million SIM users across the country. There is a formidable scope for promotion of branchless banking in the years to come and this would definitely make a monumental difference in the attitude of people and may also, to a substantial extent, encourage savings at the grassroots level.



Some relevant information about seamless banking in Pakistan:
·         In first quarter of 2014, value of branchless banking transaction was Rs 225 billion while volume was 55 million compared to Rs 52 billion and 12 million in first quarter 2012 respectively
·         In first quarter of 2014, the number of retail agents involved in branchless banking transaction was over 115,000 compared to less than 20,000 in first quarter 2012
·         In first quarter of 2014, the number of accounts involved in branchless banking transaction was over 3 million compared to less than 0.75 million in first quarter 2012
·         Adults with an account at a formal financial institution (percentage-wise) in Pakistan, India, South Asia and among lower middle income are 7%, 33%, 31% and 26% respectively in rural areas and 15%, 41%, 38% and 34% respectively in urban areas
·         Adults with an account at a formal financial institution (percentage-wise) in Pakistan, India, South Asia and among lower middle income are 17%, 44%, 41% and 34% respectively among men and 03%, 25%, 25% and 23% respectively among women

Her Majesty Queen Máxima of the Netherlands who was designated as the UN Secretary-General's Special Advocate for Inclusive Finance for Development, in a speech highlighted the imperative need for providing financial access to those who are denied this due to the conventional rules and customs prevalent in most of the countries. She said that “financial inclusion means universal access, at a reasonable cost, to a range of financial services, provided by a variety of sound and sustainable institutions. We therefore have advanced from the term "microcredit", stressing also the importance of savings, mortgages, insurance, payments and remittances.  When talking about access to finance around the world, the challenges are huge. Despite some important developments over the past 10 years, over 2 billion people still do not have access to financial services. This means that over 2 billion people lack the tools that will help them generate income, help them to reduce life's uncertainties, and protect their families from unforeseeable shocks.”

Queen Máxima proposed that “national strategies and visions need to be developed. These strategies need the engagement of governments, the country's regulators and supervisors, financial institutions (including NGO's) and even telecom providers or retailers. All of these should work together to increase access to financial services.”

The Washington-based Center for Global Development (CGD) constituted a Task Force in June 2008 of leading experts from around the world, including Dr Ishrat Hussain, Former Governor of State Bank of Pakistan,  to identify key principles that initiatives and programs for improving access to finance need to meet to be considered sound and successful. According to Nancy Birdsall, President of CGD, the Task Force deliberated on “ten principles to deal with three issues: (1) expanding financial access, including best practices for stimulating informed demand as well as for adequate competition among suppliers; (2) regulation of financial service providers, and (3) avoiding distortions when public resources are used to provide financial services.”

Ms Birdsall added that “in the spirit of CGD’s goal of generating ideas to support efforts by developed countries to improve the wellbeing of the majority of the poor and near poor in the developing world, we also hope that the principles will be useful to donors and bilateral and multilateral organizations that play a key role in designing, advocating, and in a number of cases, financially supporting relevant policy initiatives for improving financial access.”

The non-availability of desired financial products, the high capital cost, the low rate of return in savings accounts, the lack of proper knowledge about financing, the low literacy level especially in rural areas, and the narrow base of consumer credit, etc have all been critical factors in structuring financial access for guidelines. The system of exorbitant rates of usury by loan sharks, the proliferation of Ponzi-type scams, the misuse of credit facilities, the evolution of unregulated financial predators, and the expensive inputs of raw material or unaffordable land prices are also debilitating factors in taking advantage of the presently available financial products and initiatives.

CGD notes that “access to finance is about who gets offered what products at what price. Limited access to financial services reduces welfare and slows firm growth; in addition, it can increase the risk of financial instability as the poor seek to develop their own means of informal access. Access for low-income households (or individuals) and small firms are more limited than it should be because of information frictions, distorted incentives, and, above all, disproportionately high transaction costs. Some of these can be alleviated through policy actions, and some may be worsened by side-effects of poorly designed policy.”

The onus lies on the governments and the Central Banks to work out pragmatic financial access policies in consultation with the domestic financial institutions as well as trade and industry representatives. Continued apathy would be anathema to the welfare and prosperity of the nations and the denizens. IFIs and recognized think tanks can activate the spur mode that would enable the governments and the financial institutions to revolutionize their commitments to the people and provide them affordable access to finance. Edward Osborne Wilson, the American biologist who is known as the Father of Sociobiology, remarked that “the great challenge of the twenty first century is to raise people everywhere to a decent standard of living while preserving as much of the rest of life as possible.”­

Monday, October 13, 2014

Role of Think Tanks in Indo-Pak Trade

Majyd Aziz

The process of liberalization and broadening the base of bilateral trade between India and Pakistan has had a checkered history. Business organizations have been active, either from their own platform or in joint association with their counterparts across the border. At the same time, the facilitation process has also encouraged Think Tanks, research houses, community service organizations and even individuals to join the campaign and formulate well documented research and opinions to spur up the process and provide substantial ammunition to the stakeholders.

Although there are many highly regarded organizations who have taken up the challenge, both in India and Pakistan, this article highlights a few that I have had the privilege of interacting  and attending their programs. These are CUTS International based in Jaipur, Gateway House in Mumbai, and ICRIER in New Delhi. In Pakistan, Jinnah Institute and SDPI are two recognized Think Tanks, both headquartered in Islamabad. On an individual level, three names carry a lot of weight and respect. These are Dr Ishrat Hussain, Former Governor of State Bank of Pakistan and presently the Dean and Director of the prestigious Institute of Business Administration (IBA) in Karachi, Dr Rajiv Kumar, erstwhile Secretary General of FICCI, former Director and Chief Executive of ICRIER, and now Senior Fellow at the premier Center for Policy Research (CPR) New Delhi, and Dr Huma Fakhar, Pakistan’s most prominent expert on WTO, SME and FTA. 

CUTS International is acronym for Consumer Unity & Trust Society. It has five centers in India, three in Africa and one in Geneva and Hanoi. It has over 1200 individual as well as 300 institutional members. The avuncular Pradeep Singh Mehta is the guiding force behind this highly focused institution. He is ably supported by a dedicated team of nearly 100 young professionals. He is often on the move promoting his organization as well as imparting his wisdom at international forums. CUTS has been very dedicated to the cause of facilitation of bilateral trade between the two SAARC members and has spearheaded conferences, position papers and linkages in this field.

CUTS has hosted focused programs on various bilateral trade facilitation issues, including Non-Tariff Trade Barriers, financial intermediaries and trade facilitation, trade mapping, etc. I represented Pakistani businessmen in two CUTS programs in April 2013 and thrice during 2014 in New Delhi and Dhaka. CUTS enjoys a defined linkage with SDPI.

Gateway House based in Mumbai is the brainchild of Ms Manjeet Kripalani who is the Founder and Executive Director. She is the former India Bureau Chief of Businessweek magazine and has been the recipient of many global awards and recognitions. Gateway House is a foreign policy Think Tank established to engage India’s leading corporations and individuals in debate and understanding on India’s foreign policy and its role in global affairs. It has also organized projects to create awareness of the imperative need for bilateral trade liberalization and facilitation. In August 2014, I was invited to participate in the “Brainstorming Session on Sub-Regional Perspective on Indo-Pakistan Cooperation, Prospects and Challenges with reference to Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Punjab” where we discussed “Trade and Economic Cooperation between Mumbai and Karachi” and “Trade and Economic Cooperation between Gujarat and Sindh”. The emphasis was on the need to make borders connect rather than divide.

Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), based in New Delhi, is an autonomous policy-oriented Think Tank. Its main concentration is to enhance the knowledge content of policy making by undertaking analytical research that is aimed at enlightening India’s policy makers and also at boosting the interface with the global economy. Prof. Dr. Nisha Taneja, a distinguished academician and expert on WTO issues, regional trade, industrial and institutional economics, is leading the three-year project on “Strengthening Research and Promoting Multi-Level Dialogue for Trade Normalization between India and Pakistan”. The objective of this in-depth study is to catalyze and inform a more participatory policy debate through targeted and practical research and fostering multi-level dialogue platforms. 

Dr Taneja has visited Pakistan many times alongwith her team and is probably the most familiar and popular Indian academic face in the opinion of many Pakistani Chambers and Associations. Her deep insight into the dynamics of bilateral trade liberalization and facilitation has had a positive influence in this process. I consider myself as her global admirer because of her dedication to this project and for her acclaimed pragmatism. In an email interaction, Dr Taneja stated that “one big advantage of doing the project is that we have been able to sensitize media, academia and civil society on India Pakistan trade through multiple platforms. This has shifted the focus from politics to trade. Even during tense political situations we have managed to undertake all our project activities. This to my mind is the biggest achievement of the project. And, of course, without the support from people like you in India and Pakistan, none of this would have been possible!” She further added that “the process of trade liberalization is almost complete with only a small number of items on the negative list of import. We need to now focus on how this trade can be realized by addressing issues related to trade facilitation”.

Jinnah Institute is led by Ambassador Sherry Rehman who initiated the Delhi Dialogue where focal persons deliberate on issues related to India and Pakistan. I was a speaker at the meeting in Islamabad in 2012 where I presented the concerns of the Pakistani businessmen and industrialists. I was also the sole businessman in the Pakistani Parliamentary Delegation that visited India in 2012 which was organized by Jinnah Institute and FICCI. 
 
Sustainable Development Policy Institute is directed by Dr Abid Suleri with Dr Vaqar Ahmed as his Deputy. Among other research projects, SDPI has done an intensive study on the impact of bilateral trade liberalization on the automobile and pharmaceutical industries of Pakistan. It is also very much involved in organizing the South Asia Economic Summit that have been held five times in the last six years while the sixth SAES would be in November 2014 in New Delhi. 
 
At the individual level, Dr Ishrat Hussain has been a sought after speaker at international forums where he conveys the practical aspects of the bilateral trade process. His various writings and papers are based on ground realities and his approach has been on steering the narrative through hard facts and raucous roadblocks instead of sugar-coated idealism. On the education front, he has developed linkages with recognized educational institutes in India such as Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad in UP, India and organizing a collaborative event with the Indian School of Business, Hyderabad, India. 
 
Dr Rajiv Kumar is another erudite professional who is a renowned economist and the author of several books, He also oversees SARCist which is an initiative of CPR towards building a virtual knowledge platform for purposes of policy advocacy on issues of regional cooperation with particular emphasis on trade and investment flows. The SARCist endeavors to bring together the excellent work being done by many of these Think Tanks in South Asia as well as outside South Asia that are working on South Asian cooperation. He has written extensively and proposed out-of-box solutions and opinions on Indo-Pakistan trade issues and he is a recognized authority on this subject.
 
As Chairperson of Pakistan Business Council’s initiative, India Pakistan Joint Business Forum, Dr Huma Fakhar has been engaged in supporting and putting at forefront trade between the SME sectors of the two countries. She is an avid supporter of the creative industry (cinema, art, music, publishing, etc) facilitation on both sides of the border. She has specifically proposed an agenda to expedite India Pak trade in targeted areas like SME, Technology and Border Facilitation. Her several writings on India Pak Trade, including South Asian Regional Trade, have been widely published. She has also carried out detailed studies and papers on SAFTA for the SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Dr Fakhar represents a regional SME Fund which primarily invests in India and Pakistan alongwith business support services for cross border trade between the two countries.
Think Tanks, individuals, Chambers and Trade Associations have generally been in the forefront in promoting bilateral trade liberalization and facilitation. Braving contentious issues, anger-jingoism, mental blockades and even voyeurism, they assiduously trek on as if playing the snakes and ladders game, and maneuver through the political, security, and psychological roadblocks, as they aspire to attain the objective. And, the goal is that trade can change the deep-buried negative mindset. Dale Carnegie once said that ”most of the important things in the world have been accomplished by people who have kept on trying when there seemed to be no hope at all.”

Monday, October 6, 2014

Indo-Pak Trade Coalition



Majyd Aziz / Tridivesh Singh Maini

Commercial Associations, Trade Guilds, and Business and Industry Chambers are formed to promote, project and protect the interests of membership. The worth, acceptance and effectiveness of such organizations are directly related to the critical mass they have in achieving the desired objectives and doing justice to their mandate. It is, therefore, fit and proper to analyze and evaluate the performance of those trade organizations that are directly involved in the cause of bilateral liberalization of trade and investment of India and Pakistan. 

Chambers of Commerce are important not just because they understand the benefits of closer economic linkages, but also for the fact that the relationships established between them are strong, and while during times of political tensions they may not be totally immune, yet they can find ways and means of keeping the dialogue intact.

India and Pakistan may have not achieved desirable progress on a number of fronts, yet one area where there has been significant movement in the past decade has been the sphere of trade and commerce. In addition to the vision of the political leadership, Chambers and Associations too have played a vital role not just in urging their respective governments to ease out trade restrictions but also to liberalize the existing visa regime thus enabling the increasing interactions between the business communities on both sides. 

While taking the above facts into consideration, while acknowledging the fact that trade and industry of both India and Pakistan are keen to liberalize trade and remove red tape and bottlenecks, and while accepting the fact that there are serious security and survival concerns among many stakeholders and policymakers, it is now an established position that the process of liberalization of trade and ushering in a regional economic integration would maintain a forward feature despite myriad efforts to insert a monkey wrench in the process.

Therefore, it is appropriate to check out the role of trade and industry representatives in bilateral trade and investment. There is a SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry headquartered in Islamabad with a functioning secretariat. The President’s office rotates among the SAARC members and it organizes various events to promote the issues of business and industries of the eight SAARC members, more so with reference to SAPTA and SAFTA. A special focus is accorded to Indo-Pak trade and investment as it is rightly agreed that addressing these issues and bringing about mutual understanding would be the game changer in arriving at the objectives of regional economic integration. SAARC-CCI has an advantage in the sense that a combined focus is given to an issue as it allows working space to deal with national concerns of each neighboring country. The India Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry is another joint initiative of businessmen. The members do meet to formulate joint strategies and push for various reforms. However, it lacks persuasive influence because the leadership usually consists of those businessmen who are already well-entrenched in FICCI, FPCCI, SAARC-CCI etc. Thus there is mostly an overlapping of efforts. In fact, IP-CCI is not able to generate the desired results. Another organization is the Pakistan Business Council that has a limited number of members who are among the major corporations, groups or conglomerates. PBC generally liaises with the Pak-India Joint Business Forum. PIJBF is composed of the representatives of the top corporations of both countries and has an edge over others in conveying the common concerns to New Delhi and Islamabad.

The Indian mega national trade organizations, like FICCI and CII, have endeavored in intensive lobbying and awareness-raising. It is pertinent to mention that a number of regional Chambers like the PHD Chamber of Commerce (Punjab), South Gujarat Chamber of Commerce and Gandhidham Chamber of Commerce have been vociferously urging their respective state governments, as well as New Delhi, to take practical steps for giving a fillip to bilateral trade. 

The South Gujarat Chamber of Commerce has taken the lead in establishing links with designated Chambers of Commerce in Pakistan. For this purpose, an MOU was signed with Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry in November 2013. The Gandhidham Chamber of Commerce too has urged the state and central governments to open land crossings between Gujarat (Kutch region) and Sindh with the aim of rekindling trade ties between the two regions. So far no tangible progress has been made in this direction.

The Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry has been in the forefront in promoting bilateral trade and investment, in granting MFN (or NDMA) to India, in opening of the Munabao-Khokhrapar route for trade and people movement, in assisting and organizing exhibitions and visits by various Indian organizations such as FIEO, FISME, etc and, more importantly, in establishing mutually beneficial linkages. The proposed Mumbai-Karachi Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, a valuable initiative of Mumbai Chamber of Commerce and Industry and KCCI, would be a trailblazer once it receives formal approval from both the governments. KCCI is a prime stakeholder in Indo-Pak trade and therefore it commands the weight to strenuously lobby for a broad canvas of liberalization of trade and immediate removal of all roadblocks, especially the Non-Tariff Trade Barriers, that have haunted businessmen from enhancing official trade movement.

At this present moment, the three global areas of concern for Pakistani businessmen and industrialists are GSP Plus by European Union, substantial market access by USA government, and bilateral trade with India. It does not in any matter rule out other serious and imperative issues such as infrastructure shortages, political instability, negative image, impact of terrorism and extremism, to name a few. What this narrative focuses on is that the three broad global areas do and would make a formidable influence on the country’s economic fundamentals. Pakistan’s exports are a pitiful $25 billion and despite all projections and political visions, attaining the $30 billion threshold may not be realized till 2016.

In India, exports are in the zone of $325-330 billion and the Modi government has gone full force in drumming up huge exports, attracting massive foreign direct investment, and getting rid of bureaucratic slowpokes. A concerted strategy has been chalked out to mushroom the shipments of the Made in India brand worldwide. The plethora of Free Trade Agreements, Preferential Trade Agreements, Economic and Political Blocs, plus Observer Status at many a world forum, are some of the fast-track initiatives undertaken by Delhi. Trade and investment sector has been very cleverly isolated from various contentious issues. This approach is really a pragmatic option and manifests favorable adherence to economic diplomacy.

Pakistan has a trade deficit with India but this should not be an impediment nor should be perceived with skepticism by policymakers. There is an imperative need to develop mutual comparative advantages through more regional integration. Trade facilitation, supply-side capacity, and the removal of prejudiced use of NTBs are critical to enhance Pakistan’s export opportunities to India. Of course, a reality-check is essential, especially to determine through in-depth investigations into informal trading that is more damaging than granting NDMA or in removing the cobwebs that hamper formal trade or, more significantly, a paradigm shift in common bias, distrust, and jingoism. This is where the mantle of power of the trade organizations comes into action. Otherwise, summits, conferences, research studies, and camaraderie would turn out to be Quixotic adventures for a long, long time.

(Majyd Aziz is Former President of Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry / Tridivesh Singh Maini is Senior Research Associate at Jindal School of International Affairs, Sonepat, India)