Majyd Aziz
The post-2014 Afghan scenario is the outcome
of two interrelated trends: reduced attention to Afghanistan by world powers,
and as a consequence, its transition into a regional channel. The vacuum formed
after the withdrawal of the main US/NATO coalition forces is giving impetus to
regional states, China, India, Pakistan, Iran and the Central Asian Republics,
to speed up their exposure in that country. This, in turn, increases
competition between them for spheres of influence in Kabul, with each side
seeking to advance its own national interests.
The narrative is quite clear. Stability
in Afghanistan will also be very significant for stabilization and enrichment
of the whole region. Afghanistan has huge potential, rich resources and has
location advantages. The past years have reflected the courage and
determination of the Afghan people. Post-2014, Afghanistan is facing and will
face monumental internal and external challenges, such as security, political
and economic. Moreover, it is an onerous task for Afghanistan’s future business
development, attempting to integrate the economy in the region and harnessing her
inherent potential.
The post-Karzai government set-up has
ensued into a new cooperation matrix where Pakistan is attempting to bring
about a fresh and positive approach in the bilateral relationship with
Afghanistan. The encouraging response by President Ashraf Gani, especially
during his historic visit across the Durand Line in November, further
emboldened this relationship. The highly publicized role of Pakistan Army COAS
General Raheel Sharif and the frequent visits of DG ISI Lt. Gen Rizwan Akhtar are
manifestations of this new thinking. Recently, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took
a high-powered delegation to Kabul that has further reinforced the
relationship.
The feel-good signals emanating out of
these interactions, although reflecting hope, are still dependant on the future
course of actions of both the governments and should be planned in view of the
events, policies and strategies of other regional countries that are eagerly in
a rush to enhance their connections in Afghanistan. Hence, Pakistan-Afghanistan
bilateral relations now encompass various regional and global factors that must
be judiciously addressed by both countries.
To ensure a win-win situation, to
facilitate extensive and favorable cooperation, and to take maximum advantage
of the new regional dynamics, it is imperative that Kabul and Islamabad develop
a broad-based strategy and trust so that both nations and their citizens enjoy
the dividends of political, diplomatic, military, energy, trade, investment and,
most importantly, peace initiatives. Therefore, for Pakistan, the new paradigm
entails a holistic approach rather than addressing these from an
individualistic neighbor-to-neighbor position. Thus relations with Afghanistan
are now at a crucial stage because this paradigm would be the catalyst for
regional cooperation, trade facilitation and national security.
Pakistan and Afghanistan have to
tackle the issue of terrorism and extremism. The launching of the Zarb-e-Azb
operation by Pakistan Army and the huge success of this operation has also
improved the trust factor that haunts both the countries. Consequently, it has
given impetus to Kabul to intensify its own efforts to deal with terrorists and
extremists in Afghanistan. However, these terrorists are well-entrenched and
continue to have a powerful presence in many areas of Afghanistan. In fact,
terrorism on both sides has been a millstone around the necks of the two
governments.
Moreover, the economies of both the
countries are feeling the negative impact of fighting the war against
terrorists. Both countries are dependent on massive injection of considerable foreign
financial resources for their budgetary support, more so at the cost of
allocation of funds for the welfare of the populace. The macro-economic
fundamentals of Afghanistan are fragile, and Kabul would need in excess of $15
billion annually for implementation of its various programs. All in all, both
countries have to strategize their survival policies through prudent utilization
of financial resources.
Ashraf Gani is a respected economist
and his foremost plan is focused on maintaining and improving the status of the
country through an economy-led strategy. His first foreign visit was to China
before he landed in Pakistan and then India. The easy access accorded by him to
Pakistani businessmen and his standing invitation to businessmen to visit Kabul
and interact with their counterparts as well as government personalities,
including him, is proof positive that he has his priorities chalked out.
Ashraf Gani has to ensure that his
government continues depending upon support from Washington, albeit a
substantially reduced amount. The over-arching concern is that the withdrawal
of NATO/ISAF forces would drastically reduce financial inflows hence depending
on foreign loans and assistance would be a tall order. It is therefore, in his scheme of things to
look for external sources to run his government. He is looking for heavy investments
from China, India, Japan and Turkey to rebuild his nation. Pakistani
construction companies lack the critical mass to undertake such projects as
well as arrange financing. It would be a pragmatic approach to dovetail on
Turkish construction companies as sub-contractors. This is the prime reason why
Gani has embarked upon a process to attract massive Chinese and Indian
investment in the minerals sector. Chinese companies have a $4.4 billion
contract to mine the Aynak copper mines and would be investing around half a
billion dollars in the oil sector. Kabul has awarded India mining rights
for the country’s biggest iron deposits. Afghanistan expects $25 billion in
foreign investment over 30 years in mining and energy with over $10 billion
from India. An Indian investment consortium is negotiating the building of
Afghanistan’s first steel mill costing $8 billion, plus a power plant and
facilities for ore extraction and processing. Once the process is put in motion,
Afghanistan is placed to receive huge investments and the accruing royalties. Afghanistan
is loaded with minerals such as lithium, chrome ore, iron ore, coal, soapstone,
copper, and gold, to name a few. China has a huge appetite for such minerals.
The Japanese battery industry requires lithium and is keen to invest in this
field.
A worrying factor is the lucrative
narcotics sector. Afghanistan cultivates 95% of the total opium poppy crop and
is a major producer of narcotics where illegal profits run into billions of
dollars annually. The influence of the militias of the warlords cannot be
easily discounted. The margin of profit is enormous and it is for this reason
that many are demanding the legalization of narcotics. Another detrimental
factor is the shortage of educational institutions. Thousands of schools and
colleges are immediately required to bring about an education revolution. The
youth bulge is intimidating too, especially when there is scarcity of
meaningful employment. Denial of job opportunities could lead the youth into
camps of terrorists and extremists. A fact of immediate consternation is food
security since Afghanistan is importing most of its food requirements such as
rice, wheat and tea. Notwithstanding the challenges, the Gani government has
already won kudos for handling the affairs of the state. An air of optimism for
a better future is pervasive despite the arduous task at hand. As Chairman Mao
Zedong once said, “There is great disorder under the heavens, but the situation
is interesting.”
In
the past, Afghanistan stressed the distrust viewpoint but is today cautiously
warming up to Pakistan’s overtures. Pakistan has suffered the blowback of a
long, devastating Global War on Terror. The motivating factor that can play a
vital role to achieve a huge peace dividend is if trade relations are
strengthened. When countries trade with each other, people develop an interest
in maintaining peace, so that the flow of goods and services is not disrupted.
When countries are trading with each other, they tend to avoid conflicts. If
there are any disputes, as is likely to happen, they use dialogue to resolve
them.
While people in the corridors of power
are involved in enhancing the efforts on the diplomatic front, the business
community is making its own strides. A game changer has been Pakistan
Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry, comprising of Chambers of
Karachi, Sarhad, Chaman and all the Afghanistan Chambers. The personal rapport
developed between PAJCCI and President Ashraf Gani has been very encouraging.
The priority accorded by Ashraf Gani
to Pakistan over India is a manifestation of the new thinking in Kabul. Ashraf
Ghani very confidently remarked after his visit to Pakistan: “We have a shared
vision to serve as the heart of Asia, ensuring economic integration by
enhancing connectivity between South and Central Asia through energy, gas and
oil pipelines becoming a reality, and not remaining a dream. The narrative for
the future must include the most neglected of our people to become stakeholders
in a prosperous economy in stable and peaceful countries as our faiths are
linked because terror knows no boundaries. We have overcome obstacles of thirteen
years in three days and we will not permit the past to destroy the future.” Both
countries must realize that and move beyond the negativity towards a promising
future that is crucial and important for their citizens.
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